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公共安全事件网络舆情传播演化规律的定性比较分析
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引用本文:董晗旭.公共安全事件网络舆情传播演化规律的定性比较分析[J].阅江学刊,2018,(4):118~127
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作者单位
董晗旭 江苏师范大学, 江苏 徐州 221009 
基金项目:共青团江苏省委新媒体研究课题“江苏省共青团系统新媒体发展状况报告”(2017tswxmt17)
中文摘要:新媒体的传播往往导致公共安全事件形成舆情危机,给转型期的中国安全治理带来挑战。以"蝴蝶效应"的演化模型和生成机制作为基础,将集聚、反馈、互动、协同作为条件变量,通过真值表建构、单变量必要性分析、清晰集定性比较分析,发现了导致公共安全事件舆情升温的三条组合路径:网络媒体发声*政府部门回应;网民爆料*传统纸媒与网络媒体协同发声*网上论坛讨论转帖<80%*政府部门未反馈;官媒首发*传统纸媒与网络媒体协同发声*网上论坛讨论转帖>80%*政府部门未反馈。危机管理者应通过重视多渠道议程整合、重视传统媒体与新媒体的传播价值、重视反馈的时效性等建议,以改善舆情应对效果。
中文关键词:公共安全事件  网络舆情危机  舆情传播规律  舆情应对
 
Qualitative Comparison and Analysis of the Evolution of Public Opinion in Public Security Events
Abstract:The spread of new media often leads to public security incidents to form a public opinion crisis, which brings challenges to China's security governance in the transition period. This study selects 10 important public security events as a case to conduct qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), in order to grasp the evolution rule of public security events online public opinion in depth. The evolution model and the formation mechanism of the butterfly effect as the basis, the agglomeration, feedback, interaction and coordination for variable conditions, by construction, the necessity of univariate analysis, clear qualitative comparative analysis, reveals the true value:network media voice and government response; Internet users broke the traditional media and network media and sound and online forums to discuss post <80% and government departments without feedback; the official starting and traditional media and network media collaborative voice and online forums to discuss post>80% and government departments are not the three feedback path combination will lead to public safety incidents of public opinion rising. Therefore, we put forward suggestions for crisis managers to pay attention to the integration of multi-channel agenda, pay attention to the dissemination value of traditional media and new media, and emphasize the timeliness of feedback, so as to improve the response of public opinion.
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